USMNT vs Costa Rica prediction, projected lineups, and how to watch

After a successful group stage of the Gold Cup, the U.S. men's national team has had a full week to prepare for the start of the knockout stage.

While the U.S. wasn’t always convincing and left observers with plenty of lingering questions, they did win all three of their group games. In fact, they outscored Trinidad & Tobago, Saudi Arabia and Haiti by a combined 8-1 margin. Those three wins have set up Sunday’s quarterfinal against Costa Rica.

The Ticos are also unbeaten during the Gold Cup thus far. Costa Rica opened the tournament with a dramatic 4-3 win over Suriname. That was followed by a challenging 2-1 victory over the Dominican Republic. Finally, a controversial non-penalty call saved Costa Rica against Mexico, preserving a scoreless draw. The Ticos also won a pair of World Cup qualifying matches earlier this month, giving them four wins and a draw leading up to Sunday’s game with the U.S.

Surprisingly, this will be the first competitive match between the USMNT and Costa Rica in over three years. The teams played a friendly this past January. The USMNT won that game 3-0, although both rosters were lacking European-based players. The last competitive fixture between the U.S. and Costa Rica was in March 2022, when the Ticos beat the U.S. 2-0 in a World Cup qualifying match in Costa Rica. Of course, much has changed for both teams since that game.

How to Watch USMNT vs Costa Rica

Time: Sunday, June 29, 7:00 PM, ET

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota

Tickets: Click here

TV/streaming: FOX in English | Univision, TUDN in Spanish

USMNT vs Costa Rica Projected Lineup

Throughout the group stage, it’s become clear what players Mauricio Pochettino favors. After all, he made no changes between the first game and the second game. For the final group game, most of his changes were based on which players had yellow cards, with some squad rotation. However, other than left back and the defensive midfield spots, Pochettino’s lineup should be easy to predict.

For Costa Rica, a week between games should make it easy for the Ticos to play their best lineup as well. However, Manfred Ugalde and Carlos Mora will miss the quarterfinals after getting two yellow cards each during the group stage. Meanwhile, Ariel Lassiter and Warren Madrigal have picked up injuries, so Miguel Herrera’s options are somewhat diminished. 

USMNT Lineup (4-2-3-1, right to left)

Matt Freese (GK) - Alex Freeman, Chris Richards, Tim Ream, Max Arfsten - Tyler Adams, Luca de la Torre - Diego Luna, Malik Tillman, Jack McGlynn - Patrick Agyemang

Costa RicaLineup (5-3–2, right to left)

Keylor Navas (GK) - Kenay Myrie, Jeyland Mitchell, Juan Pablo Vargas, Francisco Calvo, Fernan Faerron - Alejandro Bran, Orlando Galo, Brandon Aguilera - Alonso Martinez, Josimar Alcocer

USMNT vs Costa Rica prediction

It’s debatable whether the USMNT has truly found its groove during the Gold Cup. But they are clear favorites against Costa Rica. Whether Patrick Agyemang can be productive against better competition during the knockout stage is a huge question for the U.S., so scoring goals could be an issue. However, outside of one mistake by Matt Freese, the USMNT has played sound defense during the Gold Cup, which should put the Americans in a position to win.

As for Costa Rica, the Ticos gave up four goals over their first two matches, so they can be vulnerable at the back despite keeping a clean sheet against Mexico. On the other end, the absence of Ugalde is significant, as he’s scored three of their six goals during the Gold Cup. Plus, all six of those goals came against weaker Concacaf opponents, with Los Ticos being held scoreless against Mexico.

The bottom line is that goals will be at a premium in this game. Costa Rica is likely to sit deep, forcing the U.S. to be sharp and clinical in the final third, which has been an issue at times. Of course, that will make it tough for Los Ticos to generate much of an attack, especially against a trusted pair of U.S. center backs. In the end, look for the USMNT to find a breakthrough in the second half and secure a lackluster victory to reach the semifinals.

Prediction: USA 1, Costa Rica 0