The first impression that most people have of Major League Soccer is of a young league, one that is ever-growing and with the chance of being established as one that can flex its muscles in the U.S. sporting landscape. However, according to Brett Johnson, co-owner of Ipswich Town and a former investor in Phoenix Rising, the future of MLS is fraught with several uncertainties. Johnson underlines some critical issues the league needs to deal with on the road to reach competitiveness at home and international levels, not only in terms of its media but-most importantly-the lack of promotion and relegation.
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Liga MLS Media Rights y el Acuerdo con Apple
Johnson framed the deal with Apple in the MLS, worth $2.5 billion over 10 years, as one that sounds big but conceals something less encouraging. Divide it by 30 teams in the league, accounting for high production costs, and the value is diluted. "You start crunching the numbers and realize that aren't the cure-all for many clubs," said Johnson.
Here's the Catch-22: foreign leagues such as the Premier League, Bundesliga, and Serie A are cashing in on fat media deals, while MLS is still playing catch-up. A paywall model, for example, what's in place with Apple, may be scaring off the casual American viewer, who has more content at his or her fingertips than ever. To many, the issue of consumers paying to watch matches of a league that is still trying to showcase real excitement compared to bigger leagues is a major stumbling block.
Does MLS Lack Consequences?
One of the more interesting points that came out of Johnson's interview was his critique of how there aren't enough "consequential" games in MLS. With so many teams qualifying through the playoff system, a lot of regular-season games are essentially meaningless. That same pressure would not be applied as it would be in most European leagues, in which teams are fighting to stay alive in their divisions or competing for a place in Europe's continental competition.
Johnson insists that the lack of promotion and relegation in America makes its fans show less interest in their domestic leagues, instead simply following foreign ones, where high-stakes matches take place. "In the U.S., you're much more interested in watching foreign leagues with their important matches, where teams are going up or down," Johnson said.
Promotion and Relegation: The Future Solution?
The debate about some form of promotion and relegation in MLS is nothing new. Casual supporters alike consistently cry out for this type of change that would grow more interest and excitement in the league's matches. To date, MLS executives have been gun-shy, likely out of fear of how such an alteration could affect clubs financially.
This, to Brett Johnson, would be very important in convincing more viewership nationally and internationally. He thinks the system will first be adopted by the United Soccer League, in which he has had experience playing with Phoenix Rising; an interesting dynamic may develop in U.S. soccer.
Inflated Team Valuations: A Real Problem?
Another point he brought up was the high valuations of MLS teams without any threat of relegation. He used the example of LAFC, which was valued at more than $1 billion, as an example of inflation because of a lack of real consequences for underperforming teams. "I feel that this valuation is largely inflated, obviously because there's no relegation risk," Johnson said.
The valuation of Premier League clubs such as Manchester United and Liverpool has crossed the $1 billion mark owing to sustained success coupled with the inherent danger of failure. On the other hand, MLS clubs have the security of knowing that their system is cushioned against sporting failure leading to financial debacle.
The Future of MLS: Risk and Opportunities
There is no doubt that MLS has gained immense height in expansion and visibility in the last couple of years or so. With the inclusion of new clubs like Inter Miami and more modern stadium building, the strides have been enormous. However, as Johnson says, now is about the time when some tinkering needs to begin with the model if the league is to wrest the hearts of American soccer fans from foreign leagues.
Without promotion and relegation, without high-stakes games, and with media rights that are not maximally exploited, the future of MLS might well depend on how the league is able or willing to adapt and innovate. The league needs this more than ever, finding a balance between financial growth and offering an exciting, engaging experience to the fans.