USMNT vs Ecuador prediction, projected lineups, and how to watch

Mauricio Pochettino and the USMNT continue their preparations for the 2026 World Cup on Friday when they host Ecuador. The last time we saw the U.S. in action, they followed up a disastrous loss to South Korea with a win over Japan, using a key formation switch in the 2-0 victory. The goal is to now build on that victory and build some positive momentum.

Ecuador figures to be a challenging opponent for Pochettino’s side. The Tricolors wrapped up their qualifying in September, finishing (a distant) second in CONMEBOL qualifying to secure a spot in next Summer’s World Cup. Ecuador lost just two of its 18 matches during qualifying and will enter Friday’s game with the USMNT on an 11-match unbeaten streak.

Recent games between the USMNT and Ecuador have favored the Americans. The last meeting was a 1-0 U.S. win in a March 2019 friendly. In fact, the last three games between these nations ended with a USMNT win, including a 2-1 win in the quarterfinals of the 2016 Copa America behind goals by Clint Dempsey and Gyasi Zardes.

How to Watch USMNT vs Ecuador

Time: Friday, October 10, 8:30 PM, ET

Venue: Q2 Stadium, Austin, Texas

Tickets: Click here

TV/streaming: TNT, TruTV, and HBOMax in English | Universo and Peacock in Spanish

USMNT vs Ecuador Projected Lineup

Given the construction of the October roster, it’s likely that Pochettino will continue the three-back formation he used during the win over Japan. After that win, those tactics deserve another look despite some lingering questions. Of course, Tyler Adams is missing for personal reasons, while recent injury or form has kept Gio Reyna, Johnny Cardoso, Sergiño Dest, and Yunus Musah away from the squad, so this isn’t quite the USMNT’s full lineup.

USMNT Lineup (3-4-3, right to left)

Matt Freese (GK) - Miles Robinson, Tim Ream, Chris Richards - Alex Freeman, Weston McKennie, Tanner Tessman, Antonee Robinson - Christian Pulisic, Folarin Balogun, Malik Tillman

Ecuador Lineup (4-4-2, right to left)

Hernan Galindez (GK) - Angelo Preciado, Willian Pacho, Felix Torres, Pervis Estupinan - Kendry Paez, Jordy Alcivar, Pedro Vite, Alan Minda - Alan Franco, Enner Valencia

USMNT vs Ecuador prediction

It’s been 11 matches since Ecuador last suffered defeat. All of those were competitive matches in World Cup Qualifying, which makes the run even more impressive. Even more astonishing is the fact that Ecuador kept a clean sheet in all but one of those 11 games.

In other words, the Ecuadorian defense will be a tough egg to crack, even with some of the USMNT’s top attacking players available and likely to start. On the other side of the coin, Ecuador has scored just one goal in its last five matches. In fact, nobody aside from 35-year-old Enner Valencia has scored for Ecuador in the team’s last seven matches.

On paper, this looks like it could be a defensive slugfest, in addition to being a stiff challenge for Pochettino’s team. With any luck, this being a friendly should open things up and lead to at least a couple of goals. But with Ecuador’s defensive record and the USMNT likely to play three center backs, don’t expect too many offensive fireworks in this game.

Prediction: USA 1-1 Ecuador