Note: PIRlo (Player Index Rating locator) will be referenced in this article. PIRlo is a metric devised and created by the author. It combines over 50 stable metrics to arrive at a single Rating score for players. It also rates each player versus their positional and league-wide peers. All raw data is taken from Hudl’s Wyscout data provider. For reference, a 400 PIRlo score is best in the league territory, a 300+ PIRlo score means you are in the top 8-10% of the league. Luch Acosta’s PIRlo Rating so far in 2025 is 266.12, an above average score. His core in 2024 was 340.01.
Two truths can coexist. The first truth is that Lucho Acosta is an all-time MLS great. He’s won an MVP, been named to the MLS Best XI four times, and won MLS Player of the Month 5 times. The second truth is, unfortunately, that Father Time waits for no one. While the first truth is undeniable, it’s the second truth that leaves us to wonder about Acosta’s career going forward because his 2025 season has been underwhelming so far.
While he hasn’t been poor this season in Dallas, he certainly hasn’t lit the league up to his normal pocket-sized neutron bomb levels. He hasn’t been bending defenses to his considerable will, which is his normal setting. We know that he didn’t just forget how to put a ball in the back of the net and we also know he didn’t just become an average footballer in the last six months. While research has shown us that footballers peak from age 23-27, the fall at age 31 shouldn’t be this precipitous. All of that said, what has happened to one of the best MLS players of his generation?
Two potential explanations for Lucho's struggles
There are two trains of thought whenever a player makes a transfer and doesn’t create similar output as they did with their previous club: system fit and injury.
We do know that Acosta has had foot problems in the past, but he has played in every match this season, bar one. He’s played the full 90 minutes in 17 of the 19 matches he’s played. Injury may have some effects on his game, but the time on the field says that his body is still competing. With that information, we need to look at system fit and use data to figure out if this is a half-season anomaly or the beginning of Father Time’s annoying attack on one of our sporting greats.
For context, last season, Acosta was ranked as the 12th best player in MLS, per PIRlo. The previous season, he was firmly entrenched in the top 10. This year? After Matchday 21, Acosta is ranked as the 79th best player out of the 409 MLS players who have 600+ minutes on the pitch. That ranking, while good for a mere mortal, is not the level that we expect from Acosta. Let’s take a look under the hood and see if we can find out what is befalling the attacking metronome.
Hey FC Dallas: Shoot the ball!
The first data point that stands out is not the goal tally, although he’s on pace for his lowest output since 2021. While the most predictive stats for goal tallies are Goal Conversion % and Shots Attempted, those are on par with Acosta’s career norms. It’s the assists. For a player who has led the league in assists once and has recorded double-digit assists in every year in MLS since 2019, that lone assist in 2025 stands out like a Wookie in a kindergarten class.
Assists, for the most part, are uncontrollable. The controllable aspect of assists is the volume of shots. Lucho left a club in Cincinnati that consistently takes shots at a high volume and went to a Dallas team that is bottom three in shots this season. Can’t score if you don’t shoot.
When you sign Lucho Acosta, you sign him to be the sharpest tip of the spear in your attacking quill. He’s your quarterback. You make the opposition gameplan for him. He keeps opposing defenders up at night because they have to always know where he is on the pitch, or in an instant, you’re picking the ball up out of your own net. You get him the ball as much as humanly possible and let him eat. Because when he eats, no one in your attacking group stays hungry.
Just by the raw stats, we know that Acosta’s assist rate is bringing down his perceived and actual value. It’s a major reason I was tasked with writing this piece. But what does it look like under the hood? What has changed between 2024 Lucho and 2025 Lucho?
A closer look at declining stats, and what they suggest
Per PIRlo, Acosta’s successful attacking actions are down over 15% year over year. Again, Lucho needs to eat. That decrease in usage is decidedly not letting him eat. Take a look at these season-over-season comparisons:
- His expected assists, prorated for the rest of the season, is around 4. Last season? That number was almost 16.
- His progressive runs are down 25% from 2024 to 2025.
- His passes into the penalty area are down 17%.
- He’s averaging a full shot less per 90 in Dallas compared with his Cincy days.
- Acosta’s Shot Assists per 90, the number of balls he plays that lead directly to a shot, is down a staggering 63%.
- His Through Passes per 90 are also down, by 27%.
- Lastly, he’s getting almost a full touch less in the box per 90 minutes than he was last season.
These data points scream that Lucho is not being fed the ball at the level he needs to be a match winner. And that’s why you sign Lucho, to win matches for you.
Does it look like Lucho Acosta has lost a step? Not really. It certainly seems that Dallas hasn’t fully given him the keys to their offense and let him dictate the way that he did in Cincinnati. And that’s a shame because when Acosta is dictating your offense,late-season, he is about as scary an offensive force as there is in MLS. If Dallas wants to make a late season run at the playoffs, give Acosta the ball, let him eat, and get out of his way.
Jonathan Kiersky owns The Captains Agency, which is not a player management agency but deals in transfers in the US, Europe, South/ Central America, and Africa. He is also the creator of the Player Index Rating locator (PIRlo), which is a data rating system. PIRlo is used by high-level clubs in the US and Europe to evaluate transfers, league-to-league translations, player projections, and club audits. PIRlo is also used to calculate Expected Standings (xStandings) in many worldwide leagues. For reference, in PIRlo’s system, a player rating score of 400 will probably either lead the league or be in the top five. PIRlo rates players on an overall basis, with its inputs being over 50 playing data points.