With pressure ratcheting up (again) on Tottenham Hotspur boss Ange Postecoglou after his side lost 2-0 to Fulham, and oddsmakers have installed U.S. men's national team coach Mauricio Pochettino as the favorite to be the next Spurs boss, according to a release Monday from Gambling.com.
Pochettino has been very public about how he loved his previous tenure at Spurs, and during an interview with talkSPORT last week said it was his dream to one day return to the club because he felt like he left an unfinished product there. Combine that with how bookmakers are leaning, and there are a growing number of USMNT fans who may feel nervous their long-sought manager with real European credentials could bolt at the worst possible time, in the final stages of preparations for the 2026 FIFA World Cup to be held in the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
Tottenham Hotspur next manager favorites
- Mauricio Pochettino - 7/2
- Thomas Frank -4/1
- Andoni Iraola - 4/1
But there's a couple things worth noting here that should relax American supporters, the most obvious being the fundamentals that go into bookmaking.
What odds mean
The public often misunderstands odds as a bookmaker's actual prediction of future probability. But that's not quite right. What odds actually represent is the price a bookmaker believes it can offer on a given bet without shouldering undo liability. In other words, the odds a bookmaker sets reflect a combination of its assessment of the actual probability, as well as its assessment on what likely bettors believe the probability may be.
The implied probability of 7/2 odds (or +350 odds if you are using the American format) is 22.2%, which means a bettor would have to win on those odds 22.2% of the time to come out even over the long term. But Pochettino is likely to be a very popular wager, in part because the betting market is one in which Spurs fans are likely to take a disproportionate interest.
If you speak with Spurs fans, many share Pochettino's feeling that his first tenure at the club ended with some unfinished business, and would welcome his return. And they may bet disproportionately on that option because it's what they want to happen, not what they believe will occur.
In that climate, a competent oddsmaker would likely artificially inflate the price on such a wager because of how expensive it could be for them if it cashes. In other words, they may be likely to set odds with an implied probaility considerably higher than their assessment of the actual probability.
Context of the interview
The other fact here is Pochettino's interview with TalkSPORT came the same week that the USMNT was announcing call-ups for its Concacaf Nations League matches, beginning with this Thursday's semifinal against Panama.
That the USMNT manager felt so free to speak about the possibility of a Spurs return suggests he wasn't thinking in anything close to immediate terms, or that his answer could cause a distraction at the current national team camp.
There is still a non-zero chance that Pochettino could be lured away from the USMNT job before the World Cup. Things change in world football all the time, and someone could make an offer the Argentine felt he couldn't possibly refuse.
But don't read oddsmakers lean toward him as an assessment of actual probility. It's much more reflective of what the bookies believe Spurs fans want.