Designated Bets: Kick ’em while they’re down
By Anthony Rotz
After going 3-0 last week, we look to keep the good vibes going. Odds presented by FanDuel.
New England Revolution vs Sporting KC
After nearly 14 seasons in charge, we may be witnessing the end of Peter Vermes’ unprecedented reign at the helm of Sporting KC.
Alas, we will shed no tears. As one end is the beginning, the beginning of a great night of MLS betting.
Sporting KC comes into Foxboro, likely delirious as they search for an offensive spark during this drought. Two goals in eight matches is not a symptom of bad luck, but who this KC team is right now, having an xG above 1.0 in only three games.
This goal crisis has KC still searching for their first win, which isn’t likely to happen in the confines of Gillette Stadium.
Bruce Arena and his Revolution have so far put to rest any concerns about another disastrous campaign following the debacle of 2022. Through eight games, New England is top of the Eastern Conference. 2021 MLS MVP Carles Gil continues to dazzle in midfield while keeper Djordje Petrović is an early favorite for the Golden Glove. New England will be missing at least one key piece in winger Dylan Borrero, while forwards Gustavo Bou and Bobby Wood are questionable.
Similar to the 2021 squad, this Revs team is grinding out points. New England’s resolve could prove deadly against a team in KC suffering from poor form and low confidence. It is also an excellent trait to target in unders. Half of the Revs games have finished u2.5 and five of eight for Sporting. Petrović is the last thing KC needs right now as the Serbian is saving 85.7% of shots en route to four clean sheets.
If Bou and Woods are out, the Revs will be even more conservative as they look to break on counters. Regardless, I’ll take the Revs to get the win and u2.5.
New England Revolution ML -130 and u2.5 -110
LA Galaxy vs Austin FC
Following their defeat to LAFC, a familiar feeling must have set in the Galaxy locker room, disappointment. The Galaxy played well, but two poor moments cost them a win. To make matters worse, they finally scored two goals, having scored three all seasons. Maybe they are feeling more disillusioned than disappointed by now.
The fact is LA has played much better than their 0-3-4 record would suggest. According to xG, the Galaxy is a pretty average team. A -.03 xGD has them in the middle of the pack in a crowded playoff field. Despite the poor start, there is plenty of time for the Galaxy to turn around their season. A home date with Austin FC presents the opportunity to do just that.
Another team in the MLS goal desert, Austin FC has managed a single goal over the last 445 minutes.
Austin has been a team of wild extremes, vastly underperforming their xG in their inaugural season before significantly outperforming it last year. Now they are right on target as a below-average attack.
Like much of the team, star midfielder Sebastián Driussi has taken a step back. Last season the All-Star scored 25 goals and added 5 assists. Without those herculean contributions, Austin is in big trouble.
While the Galaxy is in a similar situation as Sporting KC, this Galaxy team is vastly more talented. This has to be a do-or-die performance for the Galaxy. I’ll take them to get their first win of the season.
LA Galaxy -140
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
Unlike many other teams featured, San Jose has the opposite of problems in front of goal. With a 14.3xG, San Jose is the league’s second most potent attack. Cristian Espinoza has taken his game to another level, scoring five and adding two more helpers.
Alongside Espinoza, Jeremy Ebobisse and Cade Cowell complete a formidable trio capable of giving any team a hard time. Especially a shaky backline like Colorado’s.
Colorado has conceded 10 goals, with an xGA of 11, giving them a top-five worst defense. Dragging the price for this parlay down is Colorado’s own struggle in front of net, scoring only five goals compared to a 10.4 xG.
Colorado’s attack has emerged from their slumber, scoring in back-to-back games in their most recent outings. More positive regression should come their way against a league average.
Expect scoring in Salt Lake.
Salt Lake/San Jose Earthquakes BTTS/o2.5 -105