Match day 5 is almost upon us, so let’s fill out our MLS betting roster. Odds provided by Fanduel.
Designated Bet Slot 1
The highest chalk we’ll take proves an actual value. My model has us getting a 4% edge.
After a bright start to the season, Miami has fallen off a Josef Martínez-sized cliff. Three consecutive losses in which Gary Neville’s men have been shut out twice and generated just 2 xG.
Defensively, Miami has been little better. Some outstanding performances from goalkeeper Drake Callender have kept Miami in the game but not enough to claim any points over the last three weeks.
Coming off a heartbreaker, in which Chicago Fire’s Kei Kamara netted a stoppage-time winner, Miami travels up to Cincinnati.
At 3-2-0, Cincinnati is third in the Eastern Conference and riding high after a grinder in Nashville. Cincinnati has had a passionate soccer fan base since before FC Cincinnati’s MLS debut and they now have a team whose performances can match.
TQL Stadium has become a fortress since Cincy’s uptick in form dating back to last season. In their last 13 home matches, Cincy is 6-5-2 including two already this season.
It should excite Cincinnati that striker Brandon Vasquez found the back of the net for the first time last week after scoring 18 times last season. Cincinnati pulling out points despite the lack of Vasquez goals is a testament to the depth and cohesiveness in Pat Noonan’s squad.
Miami may keep it close, but Cincinnati has discovered ways to find a win throughout the season. At home with the crowd behind them, Cincinnati should continue their stellar home form while piling more misery against goal-shy Miami.
FC Cinncinati -150
Designated Bet Slot 2
Just the opposite of goal-shy these last two weeks, we have Chris Mueller.
Mueller’s talent manifests itself in purple patches, and right now he seems to frolic.
Back-to-back goals against previously mentioned FC Cincinnati and Inter Miami mean the American is going for three in a row against a DC United team tied for the worst defensive record.
This is not based solely on United’s Charmin defense but more so on where that defense tears apart. In each of their last three matches, DC has been torn apart from attacks through the left. New England Revolution’s Gustavo Bou, NYCFC’s Talles Magno, Orlando City’s Duncan McGuire, and Columbus Crew’s Lucas Zelarayán all exploited space around that side to score. Where does Mueller line up for Chicago? On the left. At +250 I’ll take him to end up on the scorers’ sheet.
Striker Kacper Przybyłko has been quiet since his arrival in Chicago but considering DC has conceded in three straight games to strikers presents another decent option at +130.
Chris Mueller to score +130
Designated Bet Slot 3
A Western Conference matchup welcomes the defending MLS champs, LAFC to Commerce City to take on the Colorado Rapids.
LAFC has kept their winning ways going from last season and remains among the leagues unbeaten, something the Rapids cannot say. In fact, they are the exact opposite, among the league unvictorious, if that is even a word. Yes, at 0-2-3, Colorado is looking for their first win of the season against a less-than-ideal opponent, but that doesn’t matter. What does matter is, can we get three goals?
Despite their league-low two goals scored, Colorado’s xG is much higher at 6.9, just above the league average. The Rapids are due for some positive regression and at home is the perfect place for it to start. Colorado has historically played LAFC tough with the home crowd behind them, including scoring in three of four matchups. The Rapids have the talent to score. Unfortunately for them, Lady Luck is shining on other teams at the moment.
On top of the lackluster scoring, Colorado also is dealing with a poor defense, one that is allowing a league-high 8.7xG, making for a less-than-ideal matchup with a strong LAFC attack.
LAFC is tested, talented, and lucky enough to have three of their first four matches at home. In their one match on the road, the reigning champions allowed their highest xG of any game at 1.3.
Where there is a will, there is a way. I expect a close game with both LAFC and Colorado scoring. And LAFC scoring a few more.
LAFC- Colorado Rapids o2.5 -130