Is it Week 24 already? Time sure does fly when you’re money is wrapped up in sports. Let’s see how fast this week goes by with a fresh slate of action to check out.
All odds presented by DraftKings.
Atlanta United vs. Orlando City
MLS schedulers knew how to kick off the weekend by gifting fans a rivalry match on Friday night. The dirtiest rivalry in the dirty south will see Orlando travel to Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on Atlanta United. These two teams met just over a month ago, with Orlando snatching the three points away from the Five Stripes courtesy of an 87th minute Nani header.
Head Coach Gonzalo Pineda takes the reigns for his second game in charge of Atlanta. After dropping his first match 2-0 to Nashville SC, Pineda will hope that more practice will have his player better prepared offensively. In his debut, the Mexican lined up in a 3-5-2, which yielded just four shots in the first half before switching to a 4-2-3-1 for the second half. While the tactical adjustment did not produce any goals, the team was more settled with a traditional back four. With an intense match looming, the squad finds itself in a dilemma as key players such as center-back Miles Robinson and striker Josef Martinez are currently away from the team on international duty.
After claiming six wins from their first tens games, Orlando has claimed all the points from four of the previous 12. The culprit for this regression is defense. Through those first ten games, Orlando suffocated the opposition conceding seven goals before shipping seventeen over the next ten matches. The clouds have begun to part, and that stout Orlando defense from earlier this season is rearing its head again. Over the last five weeks, the Lions have two clean sheets and conceded multiple goals only once to the Columbus Crew, who finished with just a .8xG.
When Orlando defeated Atlanta back in January, it set the Lions on a seven-game point streak which they are currently riding. Yes, Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a tough as any place to play in a league where the home field is a considerable advantage, but everything is about context. Orlando’s defense is back in form while the attack welcomes a healthy Daryl Dike into the starting eleven. Meanwhile, Atlanta is learning to play under a third head coach this season with fitness questions for some key players. I’ll take City to claim a result from their southern neighbor.
Orlando City +.25 -120
Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Portland Timbers
We’re getting into juicing territory, but at -140, we should still squeeze.
Looking at the Vancouver Whitecaps schedule is like watching the scene from Old School of Frank the Tank running through the quad. Meaning it’s streaky as hell. A five-game losing streak, a five-game draw streak, and now they are in the midst of a four-game winning streak. If you’re winning, you’re scoring goals which is what this Whitecaps team is doing. With a 27.4 xG, Vancouver has the third-lowest expected goal total in the scoring-friendly Western Conference, even behind Austin FC. Over the last month, Vancouver has been one of the league’s better offensive sides, posting ten goals over four games, propelling them into the thick of the playoff hunt.
For Portland, it’s been a consistently inconsistent season as they enter Friday with a record 9W-3D-10L. What has been consistent for the Timbers is horrendous defense. Portland has conceded 39 goals, second-most behind the shambolic team playing in Toronto. They have managed two clean sheets in their previous two matches, but if their body of work over this season tells us anything, they will be letting in goals soon. A fun fact, earlier this season, they conceded three goals following back-to-back shutouts.
Portland hasn’t had issues scoring goals this season with an attack led by Felipe Mora and Diego Chara but has consistently fielded an error-prone defense. Vancouver has a league-average defense with an attack finding some life. Mix them together, and you have a recipe for at least three goals.
o2.5 -140
Seattle Sounders vs. Minnesota United
Seattle can be found atop the Western Conference standings in large part to their incredible start to the season. Without a loss in their first thirteen games, the Sounders claimed 29 points by July 7th. Since the end of that run, Seattle appears more like a team chasing a playoff spot than a team with the second-best odds for the MLS Cup. Head Coach Brain Smeltzer’s squad has posted 4W-1D-4L over their last nine.
Minnesota’s campaign has followed a different script. The Loons suffered defeat in their first four matches of the season before finding their footing. Over the last seventeen games, Minnesota has suffered defeat twice. That is a span in which Minnesota has finished with a lower xG than their opponents also twice.
Seattle and Minnesota are more of an even match than many may think, especially if that early season form is still on your mind. Minnesota has its work cut out to secure a result on the road; at plus money, it’s a risk worth taking.
Minnesota United +.5 +105