Chicago Fire vs DC United: Week 14 Preview

While not exactly a forgettable game, the Chicago Fire are probably trying to forget what happened just a few days ago down in Nashville and will be trying to not do the same thing at home against a fairly depleted DC United. Both teams will be coming with some struggles, but both will really need a win to get back their confidence that they’ve lost. Let’s see who won’t be involved.

After his any% speed-run of the worst center-back performance possible, Johan Kappelhof will be suspended for this one. Also staying out are Francisco Calvo, who is still with Costa Rica in the Gold Cup, and coach Raphael Wicky, who is still away dealing with a family emergency. For DC United, they’ve got a real big list. For confirmed absences, there’s Brendan Hines-Ike who is set for everything but surgery on his hip, Steve Birnbaum was confirmed out with a twisted ankle, Donavan Pines was called up to Canada, and Ola Kamara is away attending to his own family emergency. Adrien Perez and Russell Canouse came off the pitch early against the Philadelphia Union on Saturday, but shouldn’t be too hurt. Also notable is Kevin Paredes, who didn’t travel to Philly for that one, but only because he was finishing up his recovery. Speaking of recovery, the Chicago Fire have activated Stanislav Ivanov off the injury list, making him eligible to be selected, although he may not see the pitch until later in the week.

Let’s dig into what the game will have in store for us.

MAFS TIME!

That title may sound incredibly unprofessional, but I say it that way because while this is extremely numbers-based and therefore scientific, it is also absolutely not scientific. xG and other stats like it are pretty ethereal and hard to get a tangible handle on and other stats are less informative and more “pushing numbers around in funny ways.” But there are some strange numbers that I’ve been noticing as I rummage around the statistics surrounding either team.

On DC United, the most notable metric about them is the fact that they are fifth in the league for xGD, which is just the goal differential for xG and xGA. You can read that as a team that is supposed to be scoring a lot of goals and giving up little goals. The Fire ran into the team with the top xGD in Nashville last week. But what’s concerning for DC is that their players with the best “On-Off”, which compares goals scored and allowed while a player is on the pitch vs when their off the pitch, are injured. Those players are injured. For players with over 200 minutes on the season, Brendan Hines-Ike, Donovan Pines, Ola Kamara, and Kevin Paredes are all players who are on the pitch for DC when they are scoring. And projected starters like Julian Gressel, Tony Alfaro, and Frederic Brillant are usually on the pitch when the team doesn’t perform well.

Looking at the Chicago Fire’s On-Off statistics, Miguel Navarro, Jonathan Bornstein, and Fabian Herbers are actually the best in that area, likely because they started playing more the moment the formation shifted to where it is now. This can be compared to Francisco Calvo being on the bottom in that stat, since he hasn’t been involved at all during the two recent wins. And in good news, the Fire are finally lowering their GA-xGA, meaning that teams aren’t over-performing against the Fire for one reason or another. Maybe the defense finally started working, or maybe they’ve just been playing against worse teams.

Gut Check

Both the Chicago Fire and DC United are coming into this game with some very concerning situations. For the Fire, it’s pretty obvious and glaring. They just lost 5-1 on the road after losing their head coach unexpectedly and getting their captain ejected in the process, abruptly ending what looked to be the beginnings of something. While the team has struggled historically on the road, they at least know what they’re doing at home at either SeatGeek Stadium in the past and recently at Soldier Field. This is going to be a test of leadership, but it’ll be a test of backup leaders. Former head coach Frank Klopas will likely have just this one chance to lead a Fire team to victory again in Soldier Field and Jonathan Bornstein will likely be called to wear the armband again after being “rested” coming off of a 10 day break.

Coming from the east, DC United are dealing with a massive amount of injuries and absences, not to mention a team that already has underperformed the already low expectations set out for new coach Hernan Losada. Much like the Fire, they’ve only really gotten three points out of the sort of teams they were supposed to beat like Inter Miami, the Chris Armas-led Toronto FC, and the Fire themselves in DC. But when tested, they haven’t done much. And with this availability issue, they’re in a tough spot. But, admittedly, this is a winnable game for DC. It’s a winnable game for either team. And it’s up to them to decide if they’re ready to see what they’re capable of.

A Closer Look

With a mid-week game in between an already lost game and another winnable game, this is a chance for the Chicago Fire to experiment a little bit. At this point, the line’s been broken and unfortunately the lineup that got the team two straight wins no longer works. But, with some returning players and various new openings, there may be a chance that some players can get chances. Especially after the improvement seen in the second half in terms of attacking intent, there’s a couple of suggestions I’d throw in.

First of all, Jonathan Bornstein needs to start. As a proven vocal leader for this defensive line, he’s just done well in a way that no other defender has this season. Due to Johan Kappelhof’s suspension, Wyatt Omsberg will reprise his role at the right side of the back three for now. In the midfield, while Fabian Herbers has served his purpose, I think Gaston Gimenez should be given at least one more chance to prove his worth as a designated player. And at the tip of the spear, Chinonso Offor has provided so much more for the attack than Robert Beric. In terms of finishing, neither has been much to write home about, but Offor’s movement is about as good as Beric’s and his willingness to keep a play going is something that Beric has shown a clear lack of. That determination is something that can help build this team back up.

Projected XI

Chicago Fire (5-2-2-1): Bobby Shuttleworth; Miguel Navarro, Jonathan Bornstein, Mauricio Pineda, Wyatt Omsberg, Boris Sekulic; Alvaro Medran, Gaston Gimenez; Ignacio Aliseda, Przemyslaw Frankowski; Chinonso Offor

DC United (3-4-3): Bill Hamid; Tony Alfaro, Frederic Brillant, Andy Najar; Joseph Mora, Junior Moreno, Moses Nyeman, Julian Gressel; Yamil Asad, Nigel Robertha, Yordy Reyna

How To Watch

Wednesday, July 21st, 7:00PM CDT; At Soldier Field in Chicago, IL, on WGN and online on the Chicago Fire website