Now, we’re back on the rollercoaster in week six to find the best bets for your bucks.
Odds presented by DraftKings.
New England Revolution vs. New York Red Bulls
I’ve talked about this match over in my match preview, and I’m going to talk about it again because it offers some excellent value to start us off this week.
The Revs have picked up three wins, two draws, and just one loss, courtesy of a 2-0 humbling by Nashville SC. Despite that final scoreline, New England kept it closer with a .9xG to Nashville’s 1.0xG.
Now coming off a win over the reigning MLS Champions Columbus Crew, New England has the momentum and confidence to maintain their narrow lead atop the Eastern Conference. Especially at home, where the Revolution has won all three of their matches thus far.
Red Bulls must be wishing this game was at home, where like the Revs, they have won both of their matches. On the road, that’s a different story. New York has yet to claim a point away from Red Bull Arena.
This is a trend that will likely continue.
New York is reeling following a 1-0 loss to Philadelphia, which included losing star defender Aaron Long for the season to a ruptured Achilles tendon.
The 2018 MLS Defender of the Year has been a mainstay in Red Bulls backline since 2017, where he has gone to make 140 appearances and register 21 caps for the United States Men’s National Team.
Without Long, Red Bulls suffer from a lack of depth and experience along the backline. Perfect for Carles Gil, Gustavo Bou, and Adam Buksa to exploit.
After an Aaron Long goal decided the last match, a 1-0 Red Bulls victory, take New England to get their revenge.
New England Revolution -120
Sporting KC’s Alan Pulido vs. San Jose Earthquakes
Let’s switch it up a bit and throw a player prop into the mix.
Since joining Sporting last year, Pulido has established himself as KC’s primary goal threat. In 18 matches, the former Guadalarja man has scored nine goals while ranking in the 94th and 97th percentile in shots and goal-creating actions, respectively.
Now, Pulido faces off against a San Jose squad that likes to play on the front foot, leaving plenty of goal-scoring opportunities.
The Earthquakes have conceded eight goals in six matches, and their xGA is higher at 10, giving them a bottom four defense.
Last time, the Mexican feasted on a similarly mediocre defense in Vancouver, scoring from open play and a penalty.
San Jose has yet to keep a clean sheet on the season, and they aren’t likely to get one against this free-flowing Sporting side which is posting an impressive 10.8xG. Much of that is in part to Pulido’s contributions. With other threats like Dániel Sallói (another scorer prop to keep an eye on) and Gianluca Busio surrounding him, KC should create plenty of goal-scoring opportunities, and Pulido will be at the center of it all.
Pulido should bring confidence into this game in a game expected to have plenty of goals.
Sporting KC’s Alan Pulido to Score +163
Nashville SC vs. Austin FC
We’ve had action on Nashville SC for the past two weeks, so why not make it three?
Nashville got back to their drawing ways last week against Real Salt Lake in a match that finished 0-0.
Through the first two weeks of the season, Nashville blitzed opponents’ defense to the tune of four goals and a 5.9xG. In the three weeks since, Nashville has only two goals, all of which came against New England, and are sporting a dreadful 2.4 xG.
Austin FC might be precisely what Head Coach Gary Smith needs to get his team playing brightly again.
MLS’s newest club has claimed two wins out of five on the season and is currently on their first losing streak after back-to-back losses against Sporting KC and LA Galaxy, where they conceded twice to both.
With last weekend in the books, Austin has conceded multiple goals in three of their five matches, conceded seven, and have a league-worst 11xGA.
After being on the road against Salt Lake, Nashville now returns home, where they played a dynamic and cohesive brand of football the first two weeks.
Against Salt Lake, Smith played a 4-4-2. With this game on home soil, we should see the team revert to a 4-2-3-1, which in itself should create more goal-scoring opportunities.
Include the fact that Nashville has an arsenal of talented offensive weapons, headlined by an early-season MVP contender in Randall Leal.
Nashville’s attack is primed for goals this weekend. I’ll take the team total of o1.5 goals.
Nashville Team Total o1.5 Goals -113