USMNT: Gregg Berhalter needs a striker

The USMNT massively underperformed expected goals in 2019. As Gregg Berhalter looks to implement his style, he needs a striker.

2019 was not the most successful season for the U.S. Men’s National Team and newly appointed head coach, Gregg Berhalter. In his first year in the job, Berhalter faced the daunting task of picking up a group of players that had waded through the mire of 2018 World Cup qualification and then an entire year of caretaker coaches.

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From a results-based perspective, especially against the superior teams that the USMNT played, it was not the greatest first year. The U.S. played nine matches against teams in the top 50 of the FIFA rankings. They won just three of those matches, two versus Costa Rica and one against Jamaica.

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More pressingly, they lost twice to Mexico, were hammered by Venezuela, and drew with Uruguay in a friendly right at the start of the year. Berhalter’s team was unable to stand up to scrutiny when tested against the best. But as this excellent piece by Bill Connelly for ESPN details, Berhalter was more unlucky than you might first think.

Take the defeat to Venezuela and the two defeats to Mexico, arguably the worst matches of the season bar the Nations League loss to Canada. The U.S. outperformed Venezuela in expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1, and Mexico, 2.8 to 2.7 across both matches. They also outperformed Uruguay on expected goals and in the nine games against top-50 sides, produced a total expected goals of 14.9 versus 8.3.

There are many reasons for the difference in the scoreline and the expected scoreline, and it should be said that expected goals are not the be-all and end-all of all underlying statistics, but if just one was to be highlighted for the struggles Berhalter and his team encountered, it would be at the striker position.

As Connelly goes on to highlight, only one player scored more than one goal in this nine-game sample, Christian Pulisic with three. The three centre-forwards who all played in these matches, Josh Sargent, Jozy Altidore, and Gyasi Zardes combined for 2.63 expected goals. Between them, they scored zero.

Sargent was especially guilty, underperforming his expected goals by 1.39. Only Paul Arriola had a worse finishing record than the young Werder Bremen centre-forward. Zardes (-0.65) and Altidore (-0.59) were not exactly stellar in this area either.

While the USMNT has strong young players developing at several positions, especially in midfield and out wide, the striker position is severely undermanned. Berhalter has relied on his old mate from Columbus extensively, while Altidore seems to be the starter when fit. Of the trio, Sargent is the young prospect who has the highest ceiling, but his development has stalled with a poor season at Bremen and there are doubts over whether he can compete at the European level. He did only turn 20 in February, but the questions remain.

While Berhalter has made plenty of mistakes, then, and he absolutely should not be absolved of blame for the USMNT’s underwhelming 2019, he was not helped by the wastefulness of his players. He needs a striker. And sadly, beyond a Sargent resurgence, there does not seem to be one on the horizon.