MLS: How analytics must be carefully applied

As is the case in sports around the world, analytics has arrived in football and MLS. But while the statistics and information can provide incredible detail and previously unseen conclusions, the process must be carefully applied.

Modern technology has revolutionised sports. As Moneyball made famous in baseball, the growth of analytics has been sweeping and significant. Decisions are made with more information than ever before. There is a wealth of data that managers, coaches and scouts can delve into to better inform themselves in their processes.

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As a superb collection from Tom Bogert of mlssoccer.com outlines, analytics is now extremely prominent in Major League Soccer. As an aside, I would recommend you take 15 minutes and read through the pieces. There are some extremely interesting nuggets about how the process of analytics, its future, and how valuable it is in football in comparison to other sports.

But as I flicked through the various articles, there was one overarching conclusion that kept reappearing: stats lie and context is king.

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Analysts are often criticised for being a little arrogant. Poor ones spout their numbers as gospel. Often lauded over normal fans who do not understand the often mentally challenging complexities of the processes involved, analytics is sometimes cast as this great pot of gold at the end of the rainbow that only certain people are able to understand, as if anyone who dares suggest to run the ball on 1st and 10 is a pauper who has no understanding of the sport.

In truth, these are poor analysts. Any good scientist will tell you that they are rarely right and that any evidence they provide usually comes with a largely hefty caveat or limiting set of ranges. These are just models. They are not the answer.

But in Bogert’s pieces, it is clear that many of the analysts he speaks to across MLS recognise and operate within the limitations of their work.

“In football, there’s so much permutation it’s impossible to use data [exclusively],” Colorado Rapids first-team analyst Jase Kim said. “It helps, but you need experts still to pick out the moments.”

“One of the things I don’t like when I talk to people about my job, they always come up with the movie ‘Moneyball,'” FC Cincinnati director of soccer analytics Alexander Schram added. “The problem with soccer is if a player has the ball in midfield, he has an infinite amount of options. Sure, 99% may not be good options, but he can do everything with it. That makes it hard for this game to be completely data-driven.”

Admitting as much is the first step towards a successful analytics department. This is not to say that analytics has no part to play. It has a very large and influential part. Why do you think Manchester City score the same goal over and over again? Why do you think Liverpool’s player recruitment has been so infallible? Analytics plays a crucial role in Pep Guardiola’s coaching and tactical approach, while Michael Edwards at Liverpool is equally data-driven.

“As a club, we believe analytics deserves a seat at the table,” Nashville SC director of strategy and analytics Oliver Miller-Farrell said. “It’s a table with other seats. We still very much value experience, instincts and different perspectives. We don’t see analytics as a seasoning on the club, it’s a real ingredient of how we do things.”

Ultimately, then, statistics and the analysis of them and the trends that appear are crucial to the team-building process. They are the best tool clubs have to widely scout thousands of players. They dig into the detail of individuals’ performance levels, the tactical tendencies of opponents, successful and less successful strategies in particular game states. But in all of the analysis that is conducted, it is vital that context reigns. Why is this particular figure the way that it is? This is the crucial question that must always be asked.

Football is smarter than it has ever been. Players are more tactically astute than ever. Fans understand the game in a deeper manner than ever before. And coaches, scouts, and clubs are using processes of analysis and study that go deeper and wider. This is all because of analytics. It is a wonderful thing. But it must be applied correctly. Stats lie and context is king.