MLS: The best East and West underdogs to win MLS Cup

Western Conference

In the Western Conference, I want to look one spot lower, to a team that lost home-field on Decision Day and had to settle for fifth-place.

That team is, of course, the Los Angeles Galaxy. And while I can make a strong case that a team that lost crucial end-of-season games to bottom-feeders Vancouver Whitecaps and Houston Dynamo can’t be considered MLS Cup contenders, there is hope for the Galaxy.

The number one reason has to be Zlatan. With Ibrahimović and his 30 goals, Los Angles can never be taken lightly. When he and Cristian Pavón are rolling, that threat is increased. Pavon finished with three goals and eight assists in 11 matches.

The Galaxy may only be getting a 38% chance of reaching the semis (see above) and a -1% chance of winning MLS Cup at FiveThirtyEight, but they should be incredibly confident about their chances of at least reaching the Western Conference Finals.

Why is that? Because they are currently undefeated against each of the teams they’ll face to reach the Conference Finals. LA travel to Minnesota in Round 1 on Sunday to face a Loons side which they defeated 3-2 in LA and drew 0-0 with in Minnesota. Overall, the teams have met on four other occasions, with the Galaxy winning three, and the teams drawing once.

A win in Minnesota would set up a match every MLS fan is dying to see, a semi-final clash with Los Angeles FC. It would be the sixth instalment of the El Tráfico rivalry, one that has yet to see the Galaxy taste defeat, having won two and drawn four with their crosstown rivals.

Should those trends continue, the Galaxy could find themselves in the Western Conference Final. Should LA be playing on October 29, it could be anyone’s game and their chances, based on recent performances, could vary greatly based on the opponent.

Los Angeles were 2-0-0 against Real Salt Lake this year with two 2-1 wins. Against Portland, they were 2-1 winners in Carson, CA, but lost 4-0 in Portland during both MLS play and in the U.S. Open Cup. Out of the remaining teams, they had a losing record versus the Sounders in 2019 (0-1-1) and split 2-0 victories with FC Dallas. However, FCD have won seven out of nine recent meetings going 7-1-1. But should they take down the fourth and first seeds in Minnesota and LAFC respectively, surely confidence will be high no matter the opponent. And a confident Galaxy might be the best team in MLS not from LA.

So there you have it. I’m not saying it will happen. And I’m certainly not saying it’s a favored outcome. In fact, combined TFC and the Galaxy have been given just a 0.5% chance of winning MLS Cup. But it’s very much not impossible. These are the best two underdog bets from the East and West in the MLS Playoffs.