MLS: The best East and West underdogs to win MLS Cup

Eastern Conference

In the new one-game elimination playoff format, unsurprisingly, all home teams are expected to advance. Of the three road teams in the East, could any of D.C. United, the New York Red Bulls or New England Revolution make a deep run?

D.C. coughed up home-field advantage on Decision Day, despite playing at home to the league’s worst team FC Cincinnati. Their 0-0 draw was even tougher to swallow for D.C. fans given they played against nine men for the whole of the second half after a couple of FCC red card cards. United are undefeated in six but have scored just 11 goals across their past 12 league games.

Meanwhile, the Red Bulls certainly have playoff experience, but they have failed to impress for much of the season and will be facing a Philadelphia Union team who only lost three of 17 home matches this season. New England, too, are just happy just to be in the playoffs after their awful start. While Bruce Arena’s side has the talent, they won just one game in seven down the stretch. On Decision Day, they fell 3-1 in Atlanta, while also losing to the Five Stripes 2-0 at home back in April. Their chances look bleak.

So, my answer for the Eastern Underdog? Toronto FC, who have reached the final in two of the past three seasons. TFC may have been given a 75% chance of advancing to the semis (see above), but they were given just a 2% chance of winning MLS Cup. Compared to the 18% and 10% chances given to NYCFC and Atlanta respectively, they certainly aren’t considered favorites to emerge from the East.

Toronto may have just squeaked into a home-field playoff spot on the last day of the regular season, but they’ve been one of the league’s hottest teams since early August with just two losses across all competitions in their past 14 matches. Both of those defeats came to Montreal in the Canadian Championship.

In MLS play, they ended the season undefeated in their past ten matches. In fact, since June 26, the team has lost just three times in 18 matches. The form guide across the past 15 games would place them behind only NYCFC, LAFC and Atlanta.

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Then there’s their playoff opposition. As mentioned earlier, D.C. are not entering on the highest of notes. They are very beatable, especially at BMO Field. Jozy Altidore’s fitness is a definite concern heading into Round 1, admittedly, but TFC at home should still have enough to get past DC.

Now, moving forward without Altidore (potentially) will make a deep run tough, but assuming he can return, TFC are more than capable of going head-to-head with other playoff hopefuls in the East. A trip to the Eastern Conference semifinals would see them face NYCFC, a side which Toronto defeated 4-0 at home and drew 1-1 to in New York. If you assume that Josef Martinez and Atlanta will carry their momentum into the semis as well, it will be another side Toronto has fared well against.

Atlanta were 2-0 winners at home back in May, yet against a very different looking Toronto, who had heavily rotated their lineup. Toronto were 3-2 winners at BMO Field in June. Historically, the sides drew 2-2 on three occasions along with a 4-1 TFC win in their other four previous meetings.

But let’s look at the other possible Conference Finals matchups TFC could face. They split wins with Philadelphia this season, yet are undefeated in 11/12 recent meetings with the Union. Red Bulls could be a tougher opponent. Toronto has won just one of five recent meetings, while New York has won four. While finally, the Reds were 1-0-1 (W-L-D) against New England this year and have won each of the past four home meetings with the Revs.

So there it is, fourth-place Toronto could be the most likely underdog to reach the MLS Cup Finals from the East. But what about in the West?