Toronto FC: Jozy Altidore injury points to bigger problem

Jozy Altidore will be out for two to three weeks with a hamstring injury. His absence points to a bigger problem for Toronto FC: clinical finishing.

‘Dozy Jozy’ was often what now Toronto FC Designated Player and star centre-forward Jozy Altidore was called during his time in England. His lumbering style, which was accentuated by his weight problems, and propensity to miss easy chances inspired a nickname that was hardly the most complimentary of his skill set.

But for much of his time in the Premier League, it was an accurate, if harsh, moniker. He scored just two Premier League goals in his career, despite playing more than 3000 minutes across stints with Sunderland and Hull City. For any player, that is not a good record. For a goalscoring centre-forward, it is calamitous.

Nevertheless, since he returned Stateside in 2015 — or more technically, to North America, the American has proven his goalscoring capabilities. Seasons with 13, 15 and 17 goals in which he struck up a brilliant partnership with Sebastian Giovinco punctuated a now five-year run in Canada in which Altidore has been one of the most prolific strikers in MLS.

And this season, Altidore has continued his excellent goalscoring form. Five goals in 373 minutes in an outstanding return. Only players based in Los Angeles have more goals. But injury again struck the six-foot, 175-pound brute last weekend, pulling one of those pesky hamstrings for the umpteenth time in his career.

This time around, as confirmed by Toronto FC president Bill Manning after the game, who was in the process of squashing any suggestions that he and Altidore were in the midst of a rift after the striker questioned the role of his president’s ego in ridding of Italian trainer Giuseppe Gueli in the offseason, Altidore will not miss too much time, around three weeks. But his absence points to a more technical issue that Toronto FC will have to solve if they are to continue their good start to the season.

Having notched 18 goals in just six matches, TFC’s attack has most certainly been humming. No team has scored at the same rate this season, not even LAFC. But those numbers are a little basic and paint an overly ambitious picture. In reality, Toronto are scoring the vast numbers of goals because of their finishing, which is inherently unsustainable.

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Toronto’s Expected Goals, that being the number of goals they would be expected to score based on the quality and quantity of shots taken, is just 12.24. That means that they would be expected to score 12.24 goals based on the chances they have created. Instead, they have scored 18, an overperformance of 5.76 goals, the most in MLS.

And Altidore is a major part of that overperformance. He has scored five goals in just 17 shots, only one of which has come from outside the penalty area. According to Opta, the average conversion rate in professional football in 9.12%. Some players will obviously perform better than others with this statistic, and Altidore is likely to be one of them, but his conversion rate of 29.4% far outperforms what would be expected of him. It is an unsustainable rate.

What will come of the two-three week absence, then? Altidore will likely be replaced by Jordan Hamilton, who scored twice as a substitute in the win over Minnesota United, but it would be unreasonable to expect Toronto to keep up their scoring rate, both in terms of the flat-out number of goals and the clinical nature of their finishing.

Next. Toronto FC Vs Minnesota United: 3 things we learned. dark

Toronto must become a more creative force, not just a ruthless one. This is not to say that they are a bad attacking team. Their expected-goals still ranks fifth in MLS despite playing fewer games than many other teams. But it would be unreasonable to expect this scoring rate to continue, especially with Altidore on the sidelines.

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