FC Cincinnati: Playing the numbers game with Philadelphia Union trade

The Philadelphia Union have traded all five SuperDraft picks to FC Cincinnati. The newest expansion in MLS is simply playing the numbers game.

The development of young players, in any sport, is a crap shoot. That is the phrase that is often attributed to the NFL draft — and any other draft, for that matter.

But even in sports that do not typically have a draft, the same principle of not knowing which young talent will produce prominent and constructive players persists.

Take football in Europe. Chelsea currently have 29 players out on loan. Much has been made of their rather egregious loan policy, but their plans are smart ones. Chelsea’s thinking is simple: young players are cheap to buy and pay, why not acquire as many as possible on the off chance that one or two develop into stars, thus increasing our odds of finding the talent that translates to the senior game. It is, in effect, a numbers game.

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As is becoming increasingly clear in the NFL draft, trading down is almost always the more valuable side of the equation, excluding those trades made for a franchise quarterback. The logic is the same: to provide as many shots at finding players that can succeed in the NFL. The same underlying process is undertaken in MLS.

The MLS SuperDraft rarely produces league-busting talent. With the increasing standard of MLS, clubs must now look outside of America to find the true leading quality that success in the league requires. But that does not mean that there are not jewels to be found. Just ask Atlanta United and Julian Gressel.

The difficulty is that each team only has five rounds, before any trades are made, to find that star. Those odds are not very favourable.

So FC Cincinnati, ahead of their first season in MLS and in need of revamping their roster for the step up in competition that they are set to face, decided to tilt the scales in their favour. Rather than abandoning the SuperDraft, they went the other way. They acquired more picks. Five to be precise, all coming from the Philadelphia Union for just $150,000 in Target Allocation Money (it could rise to $200,00 if performance-based clauses are met).

Picks turn into players. And FC Cincinnati must prove that they can pick the right players for this deal to be worth their while. If they find one regular and productive starter in those five picks, they have probably got the better of the trade. Whether they can do that is another question, obviously. But they have changed the odds and given themselves a chance.

The SuperDraft is a numbers game, and FCC have engineered the best shot at hitting the right numbers. What better way to win the lottery than buying as many tickets as possible. That is precisely what Cincinnati have done here.

Whether this tactic will work or not remains to be seen. But give credit to Cincinnati for having a go.