MLS thrives; USMNT withers: The dichotomy of American soccer
A minutes analysis correlation shows why MLS became more dynamic while the USMNT stagnated. As one flourishes, the other flounders; this is the dichotomy of American soccer.
Major League Soccer just had perhaps it’s best opening day ever; the US Men’s National Team has had its worst run in generations. MLS is finally being embraced by a generation while the USMNT stagnated through one. Is this a temporary blip or the start of a trend?
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MLS opening weekend had solid numbers in attendance and tv ratings. It often gets criticized for youth and USMNT development. Kids need to play to develop. But the league has repeatedly stated a priority to field a product that can be respected as a top league.
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The single entity structure helps, but new TAM/GAM/DP mechanisms have created even more value discrepancies beyond just talent and wages. The types of players who can be brought down vary wildly, making some players more desirable for no reason related to on-field talent.
The worry of TAM/GAM forcing USMNT eligible players down the MLS minutes hierarchy is becoming a reality, save for those 2014 World Cups veterans. A minutes or money decision faces many of these squeezed players. Call it the Mix Diskerud dilemma.
The MLS Minutes Matrix numbers show the shape of the league and its relationships with certain players segments. Of the 277 players that featured in Week 1, only 112 were American or Canadian. Benches were 68% USMNT eligible. USMNT eligible players are being given chances, especially the youth, while the over-30 USMNT vets continue to get starts, but the middle-class, domestic player of this middle generation was squeezed out. The USMNT had to shorten its bench and limit ideas and approach, and now the USMNT is spending 2018 in Not Russia. What can MLS do that helps the USMNT?
Portland had only three domestic players in the 18-man squad. Colorado has Kortne Ford, who has proven his worth, but some teams still do not have full academies. The FCD, Sporting KC and LA Galaxy approach has yielded mixed results. Homegrown, academy and even NCAA players need to keep pace with foreign signings for the domestic game to not affect the national game.
Traditionally, La Liga and the Bundesliga have the lowest percentages of foreigners taking minutes. Serbia has built a domestic league of domestic players and seen a rise in their national team level by giving youth minutes. Turkey and England are usually fielding domestic players the least. Their international sides have borne the brunt of that.
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One can only hope for the USMNT and MLS to find a balance between these extremes.