Who Wins the MLS Western Conference?
By Eric Harris
Trying to make sense of the wild wild west.
It’s really crowded in the Western Conference. Like absurdly crowded. The top four are just separated by just four points. One team has three games left, one with four, and two more with five. So who wins the conference? Let’s take a look at the standings now.
- Vancouver Whitecaps – 48 points, 5 games remaining
- Portland Timbers – 47 points, 3 games remaining (13 wins)
- Sporting Kansas City – 47 points, 5 games remaining (12 wins)
- Seattle Sounders – 44 points, 4 games remaining
Seattle being unable to win a game against Real Salt Lake kept things from getting even more jumbled. It also was a huge blow to their shot at getting out of the knockout round.
Right now the Timbers have the tiebreaker over SKC because they have more wins. However, Kansas City will have two more chances to get points that Portland doesn’t have. That is in part due to the rescheduled game in Houston.
For Vancouver, the stakes get high real quickly. They play at Seattle and at Kansas City this week. Those two road games are huge hurdles but huge opportunities as well. Get wins over your direct competition on the road is the toughest, but fastest way to win your conference. Will they clear that bar? Let’s look at the remaining schedules and put on our predictor hats and see where the chips fall.
Vancouver Whitecaps
Man that is a tough schedule to end the year Caps. Not only do you have the two western conference games this week, you also travel to Red Bull Stadium, and Portland for mammoth matchups. The Caps have the top spot now but it likely wont last. I’m giving them four more points to close out the year, despite Vancouver’s road record this year even this is too big of a mountain to climb.
Total Points: 52 Points
Portland Timbers
The Timbers are playing very well right now and their three games left are much more manageable. Beating a San Jose team will be difficult with the Earthquakes fighting for every point they can get. San Jose has lost one home game all year and I expect that to continue. That plus two home wins gives the Timbers another six points this season.
Total Points: 53 Points
Sporting Kansas City
Sporting has two more home games to go with three sneaky tough road games. Minnesota and Real Salt Lake have played significantly better as of late. The home games against Vancouver and Houston have a huge importance for a team desperate to avoid another knockout round match. I will give Sporting two wins, two draws, and a loss. Eight points in their final five, which is enough to pull them above the previous two.
Total Points: 55 Points
Seattle Sounders
The loss to Salt Lake may have ended their chances at the top seed. Now the goal is to ensure a top two spot. I expect Seattle to get all nine of their final home matches against Vancouver, Dallas, and Colorado. That means the pivotal match against Philadelphia is likely the difference between 4th and 2nd place for Seattle, showing how big that loss to Salt Lake was.
Total Points: 53 points
So Sporting’s games in hand give them the edge. How appropriate is a tie between Seattle and Portland for a second place finish? The two wins for Portland and three wins for Seattle gives Portland a total of 15 wins, and Seattle 14. So my predicted finish looks like this.
- Sporting Kansas City (55 points)
- Portland Timbers (53 points, 15 wins)
- Seattle Sounders (53 points, 14 wins)
- Vancouver Whitecaps (52 points)