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How does the US/CA/MEX bid for World Cup 2026 impact qualifying?

By Nathan Reynolds

Apr 10, 2017; New York, NY, USA; United States Soccer Federation president Sunil Gulati, left, Mexican Football Federation president Decio de Maria, center, and Canadian Soccer Association president Victor Montagliani at a press conference at World Trade Center. Mandatory Credit: Catalina Fragoso-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 10, 2017; New York, NY, USA; United States Soccer Federation president Sunil Gulati, left, Mexican Football Federation president Decio de Maria, center, and Canadian Soccer Association president Victor Montagliani at a press conference at World Trade Center. Mandatory Credit: Catalina Fragoso-USA TODAY Sports /
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Earlier this week the US, Mexico and Canada formally announced a combined bid to host World Cup 2026. So what does this do to CONCACAF qualifying?

After months of speculation, the three North American soccer federations made their ambitions clear. A combined bid, early in the process, in hopes of a quick win for the World Cup 2026 rights. It would be the first time that three nations split a World Cup.

For Canada is would mark their first time hosting a men’s World Cup (they hosted the 2015 women’s). Mexico would become the first nation to host the World Cup three times. While the US, who still holds the record for highest average attendance (1994), would look to smash attendance and revenue records.

Will they win it?

Most likely, but there are several factors that impact making it so easy. FIFA mandates that once a region (i.e. CONCACAF or UEFA) hosts a World Cup it must sit out the next two cycles. Russia, a part of UEFA, hosts in 2018, and Qatar, part of AFC, hosts in 2022. That eliminates all of Europe and Asia from bidding on 2022.

A few years back Australia left the Oceania region to join AFC, thus they are out as well. Oceania’s top nation becomes New Zealand, who could never host the expanded tournament. South America (CONMEBOL) could bid, but the 2030 World Cup would mark the 100 anniversary of the tournament, which was held in Uruguay, and the region prefers those honors over 2026 hosting.

So that leaves the US/Mexico/Canada bid’s only expected competition as Africa (CAF). South Africa hosted in 2010, and the only other nation to show interest has been Monaco. Although, they’ve bid four times in the past and lost.

After missing out on the 2022 bid to Qatar, having the US host has gained a lot of support. Now with the combined bid, it is almost a sure lock. Expect FIFA to vote and award the hosting rights before the end of 2017.

Apr 10, 2017; New York, NY, USA; Canadian Soccer Association president Victor Montaglian, left United States Soccer Federation president Sunil Gulati, center and, Mexican Football Federation president Decio de Maria, center hold the agreement at a press conference at World Trade Center. Mandatory Credit: Catalina Fragoso-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 10, 2017; New York, NY, USA; Canadian Soccer Association president Victor Montaglian, left United States Soccer Federation president Sunil Gulati, center and, Mexican Football Federation president Decio de Maria, center hold the agreement at a press conference at World Trade Center. Mandatory Credit: Catalina Fragoso-USA TODAY Sports /

What will the expanded World Cup look like?

Back in January FIFA voted to expand the World Cup from 32 nations to 48, starting with the 2026 tournament. In the new format there would be 16 groups of three teams, playing in a round robin. The top two teams from each group would move on to the knockout stage.

From there a 32-team bracket would be created and progress as teams are eliminated in one-off matches. This adds one extra round to the knock out stage and makes group play easier. Going forward there should be very few iterations where the US doesn’t advance to the knockout rounds.

https://twitter.com/ussoccer/status/852655696264876032

How does that impact CONCACAF qualifying?

A few weeks back FIFA released a statement that CONCACAF would get six direct spots in the expanded format. Additionally, in the instance where a co-hosting situation occurred, FIFA would determine how to alter the spots allocated to a federation.

Given the 2026 bid would be three spots, FIFA has several options. There are two extra spots which will be determined by a play-off tournament. Ideally, they will award CONCACAF two of those four playoff spots.

That would mean, US, Mexico and Canada take three of the dedicated spots for CONCACAF and are removed from qualifying. The remaining nations would then compete for three guaranteed spots and two playoff positions.

For the fun of it, which CONCACAF nations would get those remaining spots, based on today’s current FIFA rankings?

  • Secured positions (3): Costa Rica (20th), Panama (57th), Haiti (65th)
  • Playoff positions (2): Honduras (68th), Curacao (70th)

So go ahead and plan on that Curacao vs. Germany World Cup final.

Next: Didier Drogba: EPL to MLS to USL, Eyes Return to MLS (Owners' Box?)

For these three potential hosts, there is another factor to make advancing even easier. The US, Mexico and Canada would all be seeded in the first pot when drawing up groups. That means they would avoid the top 13 ranked nations at the time of the draw.

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