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All quiet on the Eastern front: What’s going on with the MLS top scorers?

By Javier J. Hernandez

Aug 1, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Columbus Crew forward Kei Kamara (23) reacts on the field after Orlando City SC scored a goal during the second half at Orlando Citrus Bowl Stadium. Orlando City SC defeated the Columbus Crew 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 1, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Columbus Crew forward Kei Kamara (23) reacts on the field after Orlando City SC scored a goal during the second half at Orlando Citrus Bowl Stadium. Orlando City SC defeated the Columbus Crew 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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Several MLS top strikers, especially in the Easter Conference, are underperforming at the start of the season. Here at MLS Multiplex we took a deeper look at their numbers to see if this should be a matter of concern or just a poor run at the start of the year.

Four of the first five MLS tops scorers last season played in the Easter Conference. Kei Kamara, Sebastian Giovinco, Bradley Wright-Phillips and David Villa combined for 79 goals, or a goal every 1.93 matches.

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Right now after 21 games combined by the same four players are scoring on average every 3.5 games or just a total of six. If we count non penalty goals we are talking about only four in 21 games. Kei Kamara who tied with Giovinco as last years MLS top scorers has only produced one goal in five matches, while 2014 Golden Boot, Bradley Wright-Phillips hasn’t scored in his first six games this season. Last year his worse stretch without a goal was also six matches.

One thing that could be a concern is age. Apart from Gionvico the other three stars on the list have already past the 30-year-old mark and sometimes being a year or months older could be enough in a player’s body and mind. Another important detail could be the fact that all teams have seen Giovinco, Villa and Kamara played a whole season. Though Kamara was returning to the MLS last year being there in the past and I am sure that everyone in America knows what the Italian and Spanish superstars had to offer.

So why are things so quiet on the Easter front?

Well to answer that question, we will need to analyze each player individually. We will start with Sebastian Giovinco as the reigning MVP is not having a bad year with three goals and two assists so far. Even if one of the goals was a penalty there shouldn’t be any concern with the Italian. Remember, Toronto won’t play a home game during the first eight weeks. So Giovinco’s numbers should increase once he is in Canada.

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According to Opta stats the Italian is shooting 69% of his efforts from outside the area compared to 60% last year, hurting his accuracy in the process from 46% that he produced last year on the road to 35% this year. So as long as the little Italian maestro takes fewer shots outside the area and goes back home things should be fine.

Second on the list is David Villa, the Spaniard has only scored two this season both against Toronto and one from the penalty spot. Not exactly a dream start, especially since New York FC played four games at home in a row. Now Villa’s number are actually very interesting, he leads the league with 12 shots on target and as we could see from the table below (stats courtesy of Whoscored.com) he has virtually taken the same kind and number of shots per game.

These are Opta shots per game stats from Whoscored.com
These are Opta shots per game stats from Whoscored.com /

As we can see Villa has taken the same number of shots per game almost from the same distance as last year and in very similar situations. However, this time around the ball hasn’t gone in. This leads me to believe that the Guaje has had rather back luck so far this season and things will naturally reverse. However, he did score seven penalties last year so keep an eye on that.

In the case of Kei Kamara there’s a combination of Columbus Crew not creating enough chances with a poor level of accuracy by the striker. Kamara who scored 22 goals last season in 135, is projecting to take around 102 shots this season or around 32 fewer shots than last year. On top of that, the former Middleborough averaged almost two shots on target per game last year (1.8) compared to only one this season. His accuracy has dropped from 42% to 31%. The Crew has only scored three goals so far this season without picking a win in five.

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The general believe is that they will turn things around but there’s still reason to have a certain level of concern about Kei Kamara’s numbers at the end of the season.

Last on our fantastic four list is Bradley Wright-Phillips who hasn’t scored in his first six games. As we mentioned before BWP had a similar stretch last year as well as the year before where he scored 27 goals. But he did go from scoring 27 to 17 in one season and now at 31 you have to wonder if the striker has enough left in the tank.

These are Opta shots per game stats from Whoscored.com
These are Opta shots per game stats from Whoscored.com /

Similar to Villa, we can see from the chart above (stats includes playoff, courtesy of Whoscored.com) that Wright-Phillips numbers are actually better this year in terms of shots. He has taken more shots, more shots on target per game and more shots from the penalty area. So either BWP has been really unlucky in this first six games or the quality of his shots have had a major drop just by turning 31 years of age a month ago. The first option sound more likely but if Wright-Phillips doesn’t start scoring in his next four games, we would be happy to change our minds.

Please gives your thoughts on these strikers in the comments section below and let us know who you think is going to be the top scorer at the end of the season.

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