MLS MVP: Predictions

Marco Etcheverry, Carlos Valderrama, Landon Donovan. All three of these players have three things in common: fantastic hairstyles, success in both the United States and abroad, and all three are former MLS MVPs. Tomorrow, Lee Nguyen, Robbie Keane, or Obafemi Martins will join this illustrious group.

The biggest question that one encounters when talking about the MLS MVP, or the MVP in any league for that matter, is how to rank players. Just what makes a player the Most Valuable Player?

Since it seems like the MLS MVP was created to determine the top player the best criteria seems to be looking at each player’s impact on the attack, on the defense, and what they do for other players.

No player is perfect, but Nguyen, Keane, and Martins seem to be three of the top players who can do both these chores. That in and of itself leads to these three players being the top contenders for the MLS MVP.

But which one will win the MLS MVP? Let’s take a look at each player’s C/V:

Nov 29, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Revolution midfielder Lee Nguyen (24) runs with the Eastern Conference Championship Trophy after defeating New York Red Bulls at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports

Lee Nguyen

Midfielder, New England Revolution. 18 goals, 5 assists. 

Three years ago, Lee Nguyen was being cut from the Vancouver Whitecaps and looking for a job. Now he is one of the top midfielders in the league. For Nguyen his nomination is a capstone for what has been exceptional performance and a great turn of form.

On the attack, Nguyen set the single-season record for goals from a midfielder and the New England Revolution team record. His nine game-winning goals helped lift the Revolution to the number two seed in the MLS Playoffs. Considering that 6 of these goals came in the final 11 matches of the season would certainly warrant him consideration for MLS MVP.

But Nguyen’s best characteristic is perhaps is his most unheralded one: his passing. The relationship between the attacking midfielder and the forward is extremely important in setting up the attack. Nguyen has had a rotating cast of forwards all season with Patrick Mullins, Jerry Bengston, Charlie Davies, and Teal Bunbury all starting at one point or another. But the Revolution attack never had a hiccup scoring 51 goals in 2014.

Nguyen’s one blemish would be his defending. He would often go so far up on the attack that it would leave the Revolution susceptible on the counter-attack. Adding Jermaine Jones has helped, but New England’s problems early in the season (losing 8 matches in the row) stem from their inability to defend.

Nov 30, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Los Angeles Galaxy forward Robbie Keane (7) during pre game warm ups prior to the game against the Seattle Sounders FC during the Western Conference Championship at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Robbie Keane

Forward Los Angeles Galaxy. 19 goals, 14 assists

If you thought there was going to be a cliche “luck of the Irish” joke here you are wrong! But given that Keane is 34 years old and still playing lights out football perhaps one joke might suffice.

More from Los Angeles Galaxy

• The Return of Lucas Calegari to Fluminense
• Chicharito’s Departure from LA Galaxy
• LA Galaxy faces obstacles in potential signing of striker Álvaro Morata
• The Return of Douglas Costa to Juventus: A Risky Bet or a Shot at Redemption?
• Douglas Costa Leaves LA Galaxy: Opportunity or Premature Farewell?

Since coming to the Galaxy, Keane’s career has had a resurgence, scoring 53 goals in under 4 seasons. But once again it is not the goal total that is impressive, it is his assists tally and the work that he has done with Gyassi Zardes in improving his game that makes him such a credible MVP candidate.

The one potential drawback to his 2014 season might actually be that the spotlight has largely been on Landon Donovan for the 2014 campaign. So much of the MVP race is about being in the spotlight and Keane’s work unfortunately has been overshadowed.

Nov 30, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Sounders FC forward Obafemi Martins (9) dribbles against the Los Angeles Galaxy during the second half of the Western Conference Championship at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Obafemi Martins

Forward, Seattle Sounders. 17 goals and 13 assists in 31 appearances.

If only more Magpie players came to the United States. Surely then MLS would make it to the top of the club football world.

After an off-season which streamlined the Sounders attack (in other words: adios, Eddie Johnson,) Martins thrived in 2014. He made the average goal look extraordinary and scored circus goal after circus goal.

But once again separates him from the likes of Dom Dwyer and Bradley Wright-Phillips, two other prolific scorers in 2014 who were not on the MLS MVP final ballot, was his ability to create chances for his teammates. Martins movement off of the ball and into open space would often force defenders to get out of position.

If he did not have a shot at that time, he would often defer to either Clint Dempsey (15 goals,) Chad Barrett (8 goals,) Lamar Neagle (9 goals,) or Marco Pappa (6 goals) to much success. It is very rare to see teams with such a balanced attack and much of the credit should go to Martins for creating such opportunities.

If there was one problem with his play it would be that he didn’t really do much on defense. Very often Martins would be seen on an island at the center of the pitch while Seattle would struggle to keep the ball out of the back of the net (50 goals allowed). That isn’t all his fault but it did make  things more difficult for Seattle.

Outcome: This is going to be a close call. What it really comes down to is how much of the Galaxy’s success voters are willing to attribute to Robbie Keane, whether or not New England’s terrible run will hurt Nguyen, and how much winning the double will help Martins.

The safe bet is Keane because strikers are the sexy picks. Forwards score goals and get on Wheaties boxes. For as much as the MLS MVP award is about credentials it is also a beauty pageant. Nguyen throws a wrench in this because he does have the goals. But he also has more responsibility to defend which he had troubles with in 2014 at times.

Prediction: Keane