MLS Playoff Contenders: The Philadelphia Union

Why the Philadelphia Union will make the playoffs

1. It’s now a single elimination tournament
The Union transmuted the fear of elimination into a solid US Open Cup run. There’s no use in beating around the bush here: the Union have three games they must win and no one is more aware of that than the Union.

“All of them are must wins,” Philadelphia’s Ray Gaddis said following the Union’s 1-1 draw with Chicago on Thursday.  “The Columbus series is a must-win, and Kansas City we have to win.”

“It’s difficult. It’s not in our hand anymore, that’s for sure. We’re going to need a help.”

Jim Curtin called Thursday’s result “sickening”, but he’s also knows where things are going wrong: “What happened was a series of mistakes by a lot of different guys.”

There’s your key word: mistakes. Mistakes can be fixed.

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Said Curtin: “I don’t get why we didn’t just play a ball forward. We’re not really a possession team as it is anyway. To start passing around at the point in the game where Chicago doesn’t threaten too much is a mistake and it’s going to be a critical mistake now.”

3. Process of elimination
This is not about Philadelphia so much is about it’s competition. It’s a four-way contest between Philadelphia against New York, Houston, and TFC; None of whom have been lighting the league on fire lately.

Why the Philadelphia Union will not make the playoffs

1. You can’t win, if you can’t score.
The Union went nearly three full games without a goal until Amobi Okugo scored in the 89th minute on Thursday. “After Amobi gets the goal- you feel high, you have a chance even though that wasn’t our best now,” Curtin said.

2.  Key injuries to key players

Sep 27, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Philadelphia Union forward Sebastien Le Toux (11) lays on the ground after being injured during the first half against the D.C. United at Robert F. Kennedy Memorial. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Part of the scoring dip can be explained to injuries to Conor Casey and Sebastian Le Toux. As Frank Yallop said, “Missing Conor and Le Toux — they’re two influential players at this time of the season and you don’t want to be missing those guys.”

3. Do the math
Curtin is exactly right: “We will have to win our last three and we’re going to need a lot of help.” The Union are three points from a spot. The Red Bulls are two points ahead of them, but they have a game in hand. The Union meanwhile is sandwiched between Houston and Toronto who each have two games in hand.

What’s more: TFC, the Red Bulls and Houston all play one another so it’s not a case of Philadelphia hoping that each team loses out. The best case scenario is that the teams’ tie. That, however, will be futile if the Union cannot capitalize on their remaining matches.  Union fans have to hope Curtin is only speaking about a game–and not the season–when he says: We had it in our hands and we let it slip away. I’m going to be upset about it for a long time.”