Why Houston will make the playoffs
1. They have made the late season run before.
Some may look at being five points back this late in the season as being a death sentence. But for the Houston Dynamo, late season runs are par for the course. Over the past three seasons, Houston Dynamo coach Dominic Kinnear’s sides have started September being on the outside looking in at the MLS Playoffs. And in each of these seasons his team has somehow, some way clawed their way back into the top five of the Eastern Conference and made it to MLS’ second season.
2014 does not look like it will be any different as the club has gone undefeated in their last five matches (3-0-2) and have lost just twice in their last ten matches (6-2-3). The club has a fairly favorable schedule the rest of the way, playing two more matches at Fortress BBVA Compass Stadium and a road match against a listless Chicago Fire squad. Their next two matches on the road against the New York Red Bulls and Toronto F.C. will go a long way towards determining their playoff future.
2. Dom Kinnear is an expert strategist for midfield play
Although the Dynamo have never been known particularly for their scoring prowess they were always able to dictate the terms of the match through their midfield play. Midfielders Brad Davis and Oscar Boniek Garcia could force teams to chase the ball around for 89 minutes, then deliver a precise pass into either forward Will Bruin or Giles Barnes to give Houston the three points. This is Kinnear 101 and it is a style of play that helped him win two MLS Cups.
The Dynamo have only really been able to get back to this system recently, with Davis and Garcia missing large chunks of the season due to the World Cup. The club also had to integrate midfielders Luis Garrido and Da Marcus Beasley (who has also played as a defender) into the lineup which can take a considerable amount of time. But over the past couple of weeks their midfield has finally clicked. Having Ricardo Clark fully fit has also helped.
At this point of the season it is critical that a team be able to control the pace of the game and be efficient with their passing. Houston has one of the best sets of midfielders to do this and can ride their midfield to the playoffs.
3. Giles Barnes has turned into a solid second forward.
With eight goals on the season, Barnes only needs one more to tie his career-high of nine. The twenty-six year old Englishman has been touted over the past two years as one of the next great strikers in MLS. But he has always lacked accuracy with his shot, which seems to have been smoothed out this year. His thirty-two shots on goal is an improvement over last year’s twenty-nine with five games still to play.
The key to his improved shooting percentages seems to be that he is more willing to go at the defenders and try for a shot in the box, rather than taking the long-range shot. Barnes can still hit the shot from outside the eighteen (as evidenced by the video above) but forwards need to be aggressive inside their opponent’s box.
Why Houston will not make the playoffs.
1. This team cannot score.
Despite Barnes’ improvements, the Dynamo are still struggling to find the back of the net. Their 35 goals on the season is fourth-lowest in MLS. In the past three years, only the 2012 Vancouver Whitecaps have scored fewer than 40 goals and made the MLS Playoffs.
Although it is good that Barnes is able to find the back of the net, Houston need Bruin to finally live up to his potential and become a top striker in the league. Bruin has scored ten goals this season, but only has three in his last fifteen matches. Houston long lived on the ability to score goals off of set pieces and fluke plays. But the league is changing from a more defensive-oriented league to one that includes more open play and originality. Being able to score one goal and hold on for dear life is no longer a realistic way of playing.
2. Their defense has been shaky.
It is one thing if you cannot score, but not being able to score and defend is a recipe for disaster. Now most of Houston’s issues on the defense are related to injuries. The club is without starting defenders Corey Ashe and Jermaine Taylor and goalkeeper Tally Hall is gone for the season with an ACL Tear. Even Beasley, who was supposed to come in and help the Dynamo regain some consistency, has been with the injury bug.
Without their top defenders and goalkeeper, the Dynamo have had to rely on the likes of goalkeeper Tyler Deric, and defenders David Horst and A.J. Cochran to hold things together. Their results recently have been much better. shutting out both the Fire and the Union in recent weeks. But it is still a defense that has allowed 50 goals in 2014 (third highest in MLS) and has a road goal differential of -20 (tied for second highest in the league).
If the Dynamo were to make the playoffs they would be the first team since the 2000 Colorado Rapids to make the playoffs having allowed over 50 goals. Given the team’s that they will be playing over the next couple of weeks, it might be a tall ask for this Dynamo defense to hold the line and lead their team to the playoffs.