Seattle Sounders Vs Portland Timbers: Chad Marshall absence fatal?

Chad Marshall will miss the Seattle Sounders’ Western Conference semi-final second leg against the Portland Timbers. Will his absence be fatal or not?

There might not a better centre-back in MLS history than Chad Marshall. The 34-year-old has been an exemplary defender throughout his career, anchoring a string of superb defences.

And since his arrival in Seattle, Washington, he has again masterminded one of the most consistent backlines in the league. It is a problem, then, for the Seattle Sounders to solve, that he will miss Thursday night’s Western Conference semi-final second leg against the Portland Timbers.

You could make a very strong argument that Marshall is the most important player to either team. His absence, I am sure, will be hard felt. But will it be a fatal one?

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Well, perhaps not. Per a brilliant piece on mlssoccer.com by Andrew Wiebe, there is a stark difference in results for the Sounders with and without Marshall in the line-up. Seattle have played 87 games with Marshall in the team. They have won 43 of them, a win percentage of 49.4%. Contrast that to when he is missing: 15 games, three wins, a win percentage of just 20%. That sounds bad. But the underlying defensive statistics tell a slightly different story.

Whether Marshall is playing or not, the Sounders average 1.2 goals against per game. They are no better defensively with or without Marshall. Now, that seems like an odd statistic, such is his quality. And I would hasten to add that it is probably a result of the small sample size of matches that Marshall has not been a part of. But it does go to show that Seattle can still be defensively sound with their star centre-back on the sidelines.

Now, does that mean that I expect the Sounders to defend as well against the Timbers without Marshall as they would have done with him? Absolutely not. There is a great body of work to prove otherwise.

But it does illustrate that losing Marshall is not a fatal blow to this Sounders team. After all, few teams can call on a World Cup playing defender to fill in. Roman Torres may have his faults, but he is a perfectly serviceable back-up and would be a starter for many other MLS teams.

One thing that should be noted is that Portland will almost certainly look to counter-attack the Seattle backline with speed and direct play in an attempt to confuse a partnership that is not especially well-versed with one another. With Diego Valeri, Sebastian Blanco and Jeremy Ebobisse, the Timbers will be very dangerous indeed.

But Seattle, even without Marshall, have the ability, the know-how, the coaching and the intelligence to handle such a threat. The task is difficult. It is made even more difficult by Marshall’s injury. But it is not an impossible one.