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MLS Attendance: Analyzing 2016 thus far

By Nathan Reynolds

Aug 30, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Sounders FC players take a bow to the fans following a 2-1 victory against the Portland Timbers at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 30, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Sounders FC players take a bow to the fans following a 2-1 victory against the Portland Timbers at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Four months into the 2016 season the league is seeing a stagnant year in average growth for MLS attendance, but there are reasons.

The MLS started its run with an average of 17,000 fans per match during the inaugural season in 1996. However, after newness of the league wore off attendance fell for the next four straight years, to an all-time low of 13,756 in 2000. Since that point the MLS has seen the figure rise up and down throughout the years, mostly based on the influx of new teams and star players.

For the first 13 seasons the average attendance was led by the LA Galaxy, who topped the list 9 times during that stretch. Then came 2009, and the Seattle Sounders. The new kings of attendance lead the pack as the MLS grew not only in average match figures, but also total annual attendance with the addition of further expansion teams and new stadiums.

MLS: Toronto FC at Orlando City SC
Jun 25, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando City SC fans cheer against the Toronto FC during the first half at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

In 2015 the MLS set new records in the four major attendance categories:

  • Total fans (entire season): 7,326,899 (up over a million)
  • Average attendance: 21,574 (+12.5%)
  • Average high by a club: 44,257 (Seattle Sounders)
  • Average low by a club: 15,657 (Colorado, and also helped by the fact that Chivas were disbanded in 2014).

The MLS has gone from strength to strength over the past 7 years, expanding to 20 clubs, massive addition of international stars, new TV contracts and new (or planned) soccer specific stadiums. So in a year without a new club joining and fewer new, big name players joining how is 2016 holding up through 6 to 9 home games for each club?

  • Total fans: 3,444,061 – At this rate the MLS should see the 2015 number eclipsed.
  • Average attendance: 21,392 – Down just slightly.
  • Average high by a club: 40,809 (Seattle)
  • Average low by a club: 13,680 (Dallas)
Columbus Crew SC v Portland Timbers
PORTLAND, OR – MARCH 6: The Columbus Crew and the Portland Timbers walk out onto the pitch the game at Providence Park on March 6, 2016 in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images) /

For people who track the numbers, at first it may seem as though something is wrong. Seattle is down 4,000 fans, and Dallas is leading the supporter shield race and sits in last place on attendance. However, there are several factors impacting these numbers:

  1. Copa and Euro Competition. The past two months have been soccer overload. Certain match days saw the two international competitions run games from morning to night, likely keeping fans on the couch or in the bar vs. skipping those tournaments and attending an MLS match instead. Additionally, Copa America was played in the US, in MLS cities. Many of the causal fans that may have attended an MLS game during that time would have been swayed to see a Copa match due to its uniqueness, and knowing that the MLS would be around all year.
  2. Seattle’s worst MLS season to-date. Seattle is the consistent high outlier in MLS attendance, and when they struggle the league average will struggle. Even with the poor start to the season, 40,000 fans is nothing to be ashamed of. However, the league numbers are actually being stabilized by multiple clubs slightly raising their bar, rather than one club dragging up the average this year.
  3. No new, shiny club. Most years that the MLS sees a big uptick is by simply adding a team. More teams, more fans, higher numbers. The excitement of the first year can carry a club’s attendance through the entire season, see NYCFC last year. In 2017 Atlanta, and possibly Minnesota, will join the league so expect MLS to clip the 8 million fan mark.
  4. No Beckham, Drogba or Kaka. Even without new teams, new players can boost the attendance. However, going into the season with Ashley Cole as a top new international player is not going to move the needle. Likely the biggest story at the start of 2016 was Jordan Morris; however, Seattle didn’t need (nor did they get) an attendance boost. Finally, it will be interesting to see if Colorado can draw the fans back in with their strong run this year and the addition of US goalkeeper Tim Howard.

Next: The State of the Reign: Week 12

Let us know your thoughts on the MLS attendance numbers and how they may change going forward this year.

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